Futures technology or Futurology is a science of potential, potential and preferred future, as well as those with little but potentially high potential impacts, even with high probability events such as low communication costs, Internet inflation, or an increase in the percentage of the population of a given country, the probability of “uncertainty” is always high and should not be underestimated. Therefore, the key to looking ahead is to identify and reduce the element of “uncertainty” because it represents a scientific risk. During the 1980s and 1990s, the science of future studies evolved to include content-specific topics, a timetable for action and a scientific approach that speaks to today’s rapidly changing world.
Principles of Future technology
Future technology Draw lessons from the past by examining the most important developments at the international and regional levels and the resulting effects such as opportunities, constraints, threats and risks, with a view to defining a future picture.
Imagine a Future technology situation, for two or three decades, to define in detail goals and interests, using modern mathematical models.
Avoid any ideological bias, and start from the accepted assumptions and assumptions of different directions scientific research, intellectual, ideological and technological;
Set the required capacity to accomplish any future course, and calculate the necessary expenses and risks. As well as the identification of mechanisms for development that should include scientifically known objectives and the development of scientific expertise in the management of complex problems;
Focus on development factors in different sectors, to effectively achieve objectives;
Adopt different scenarios, predetermined, for all potential contingencies, which are then stored to allow use by decision makers, depending on the size of the potential future crisis. These factors mainly help to identify one of the four main models.
Models of the four future technology
Depends on practical experience but lacks a large database of data and information. Derived only from an intuitive vision resulting from subjective experience. It is an attempt to identify interactions from a particular issue. Intuition in this case is not a source of inspiration but an estimate that the researcher considers suitable for some possible future cases;
Refers to a possible future through an example that illustrates the relationships and interrelationships; these relationships and interrelations are based on the trilogy of the past, present and future, and the harmonious relationship that exists between them. The future we draw in our present and present is the future of our past
Targeted or normative model
It is a development of the intuitive model, but benefits from various scientific techniques used.
This model focuses on all variables in a unified framework that combines the two former models, in the form of feedback and therefore depends on interaction, not to forget the past and not to ignore the objective reasons that may interfere to change the course of the future. It combines, including exploratory research, data, facts and organizational research, and attaches special importance to creativity, imagination and appreciation. This model represents a step forward for future methodological research.
Scenario of future technology
The Future technology scenario is one of the products of modern science based mainly on the feasibility study, which means controlling the plan, its sustainability, fulfilling its material obligations, providing technical leadership and overcoming external obstacles that may stop the scenario in one stage, ultimately the benefits of the scenario. It is worthwhile to continue or raise the level of scientific development in the field under study. The script does not come from nothing, but it relies mainly on a large system of programmable and stored data which is constantly updated according to changes in all fields.
Future technology a major branch of futuristic science whose function is to describe various potential events and analyze their results.
It is a description of my Future technology situation and ways of managing it.
Stories about the future include past and present.
Is a description of a potential future, rather than a potential expectation of an actual Future technology.
The scenario is a series of assumptions for future events
A consistent picture of a possible future
Is defined as a programmatic system of action to respond to major events and developments within a framework of Future technology planning of a state or institution, with a view to future success.
The proposed scientific definition of the scenario is: a description of a possible future situation or desirable, and to clarify the characteristics of the path or paths that lead to it, starting with the current situation, or from an assumed initial situation.
Writing it requires creativity and a deep intellectual imagination.
Based on a rigorous scientific approach to finding the facts.
Based on realistic events.
Based on national, political, military or economic objectives, “or to reach as close as possible to these objectives.”
The number of scenarios can be from two to four
It is formulated in great secrecy in data used by specialists in related fields.
Depends on a crowd of scientists and experts
The scenario is divided into two parts:
Making a crisis: This is a positive scenario that dictates its will, by making a certain crisis, which is to force the other party to accept a decision. This scenario is characterized by positive and effective actions, which impose specific positions on the leadership of the other party to deal with them, and through this, the implementation of the resolution. The past decade has witnessed many of this type of scenario, both in the Gulf and in other parts of the world.
Confronting the crisis: It is negative (defensive) and positive (offensive), active to deal with external or internal events, to harness the potential, to determine the method and to employ people and organizations that will address the stages of the crisis. This scenario is imperative to maintain the continuity and integrity of the ‘state’ and institutions, and not to be subjected to strong shocks.
This scenario covers all other sectors, such as feasibility studies and future plans. The way to transform the crisis from negative to positive and to achieve the proposed future goal can be understood.
Ways to build future technology scenarios
1- Intuitive method
2- Systematic method (typical)
3 -Interactive method (interaction between intuitive and typical)